Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 0.321532 0.376753 0.436830 0.506819 0.585879 0.672180 0.773266
2025-04-20 0.236602 0.305915 0.387376 0.489350 0.612689 0.756119 0.934521
2025-04-27 0.172915 0.246833 0.340587 0.466329 0.628430 0.828093 1.090048
2025-05-04 0.130160 0.205536 0.308726 0.456727 0.659409 0.922694 1.285222
2025-05-11 0.097281 0.170768 0.279590 0.446498 0.688926 1.020202 1.497401
2025-05-18 0.067392 0.133235 0.239532 0.414668 0.685095 1.074151 1.660368
2025-05-25 0.045080 0.101606 0.201746 0.379523 0.671602 1.113809 1.809927
2025-06-01 0.032141 0.082569 0.180360 0.366622 0.690575 1.204039 2.044159
2025-06-08 0.022520 0.066590 0.160523 0.352662 0.706180 1.291922 2.286212
2025-06-15 0.017180 0.057986 0.152822 0.359491 0.758755 1.445746 2.648443
2025-06-22 0.011315 0.045132 0.132505 0.337769 0.757377 1.511037 2.876880
2025-06-29 0.007644 0.036195 0.118132 0.325019 0.770905 1.603950 3.161654
2025-07-06 0.004916 0.028420 0.104271 0.311309 0.783071 1.701114 3.473417
2025-07-13 0.003446 0.024036 0.097911 0.313755 0.829505 1.868008 3.926503
2025-07-20 0.002275 0.019668 0.089743 0.309804 0.862154 2.013757 4.357995
2025-07-27 0.001560 0.016700 0.084792 0.313291 0.912778 2.201804 4.887674
2025-08-03 0.001036 0.014022 0.079536 0.314682 0.959323 2.387908 5.432557
2025-08-10 0.000572 0.010625 0.069325 0.298178 0.959593 2.478643 5.802811
2025-08-17 0.000283 0.007722 0.058940 0.277353 0.944815 2.535665 6.112669
2025-08-24 0.000157 0.006154 0.053735 0.272341 0.971321 2.687365 6.629425
2025-08-31 0.000081 0.004820 0.048558 0.265567 0.991890 2.828414 7.137321
2025-09-07 0.000050 0.004232 0.047493 0.274589 1.060090 3.088329 7.918511
2025-09-14 0.000020 0.003102 0.041325 0.260207 1.055897 3.175790 8.336919